Assembly Project

As New Zealand gears up to a general election this November, there’s a new party on the scene that I suggest outsiders keep an eye on.

New Zealand is among the world’s healthiest democracies. In 2017, when the far right were gaining support globally and social democrats were in the doldrums, New Zealand bucked the trend. That year saw the unexpected rise of Jacinda Ardern, a centre left prime minister whose political brand emphasised listening, empathy and moderation. And few things illustrate how well-governed New Zealand is when in 2020, its effective response to the Covid pandemic made it one of the few rich countries where life could return to almost normal. Ardern’s Labour Party were rewarded that year with an outright majority in Parliament, which almost never happens under proportional voting.

But Ardern’s methods had their limits. Even at the peaks of “Jacindamania”, Labour never offered a transformative economic agenda that could match her brilliance at communication and crisis management (also seen after the Christchurch mosque shootings). Labour’s other achievements mostly amounted to bureaucratic reorganisations. And like in most democracies, the economic fallout of the pandemic left voters itching for change. Without a clear plan or message about how to deal with kitchen table issues, Labour’s agenda was overshadowed by identity politics. In 2023, an exhausted Ardern resigned and under his successor, Labour were resoundingly defeated by a right-wing coalition.

The current government has had struggles of its own. Its leader Christopher Luxon is a former airline CEO who has proven a competent but uninspiring political operator. He is often overshadowed by his populist coalition partners, the far right New Zealand First and the libertarian ACT, and infighting in his own party. Their most noteworthy achievements are in repealing laws. Approval ratings show the government is unpopular while offering them a consolation: Labour are also struggling. Recent polls have shown the left bloc only narrowly ahead of the right bloc, which in practice might translate into the latter being re-elected in November but with New Zealand First having an increased stake.

Except that someone might be throwing a spanner in the works.

A new opportunity

Opportunity has contested New Zealand’s last three general elections, each time receiving 1-3% of the vote and no seats. It has positioned itself in the centre, with its signature policies including universal basic income and a tax reform that is designed to make the system fairer without increasing taxation overall.

This year, the party has gained far more attention, climbing to its best polling so far, and with the most recent polls putting the party above 5% of the vote. If it manages this in the election, they will be guaranteed seats in Parliament. New Zealand has had several new parties break into Parliament since the introduction of proportional voting in the ’90s, they were always breakaways from existing parties. A breakthrough for Opportunity would be remarkable because it is a complete outsider.

The turning point came with a shake-up last year, including their new leader Qiulae Wong (read “kew-lay” but she often goes as “Q”) and an updated policy platform, focusing its tax reform on a land value tax. It’s a long-term plan designed to shift some taxation away from economic activity and onto passive wealth. It remains to be seen whether Opportunity can win the required support for it and address concerns such as its impact on farmers. But it is an example of the kind of ambitious economic transformation that any left-to-centre party should be proposing.

Citizen’s Voice

Of course, my real interest in the Opportunity is their support for citizens’ assemblies. As they argue:

Politics as usual isn’t working.

Our schools, hospitals and transport systems are failing. Why? Because parliament has become a place of division and tinkering – instead of courage, co-operation and long-term solutions.

We can’t afford pendulum politics anymore. Every left-right lurch after an election costs us – in cancelled projects, shelved infrastructure and repealed reforms.

It’s time to break the cycle. We need a political system that stops kicking cans and starts making hard decisions for the long-haul. We need to hear the Citizens’ Voice.

(Emphasis in original)

Opportunity pitch citizens’ assemblies as a way to break gridlock and short-termism in politics. It also has several advantages for a party like their own. Even if it won’t get the crowds chanting the way that “Votes for women!” did, voters probably would like it. It is a good look for a party to say that their party is different from politics as usual, because it’s not just another elite club seeking power. It gives them a signature policy, which is especially important for a party positioning itself in the centre.

Moreover, citizens’ assemblies could solve a recurring problem with left-to-centre politics, in how politicians fail to read the room. Ardern’s government mistakenly assumed that opposition to their plan to create a separate health authority for the Maori ethnic group was due to racism, because some of it was, but they missed that even some progressive voters were uneasy about a policy that appeared to treat New Zealanders differently based on race. Here in Britain, Keir Starmer and his advisors made the opposite mistake. They took a wave of anti-immigration backlash at face value and tried to appease it. Instead of having the intended effect of bringing voters of the far right back to the centre left, it alienated their remaining supporters and played a key role in Starmer’s recent downfall.

These problems happen because often politicians hear voters through the noise of traditional media and now social media too. They miss out on hearing what voters think after hearing different arguments and being given time to reflect. This is a gap that citizens’ assemblies can fill.

From assemblies to action

Opportunity’s materials suggest creating a series of one-off assemblies for topics deciding by Parliament or public petitions, rather than the Belgian model of creating a permanent standing chamber. Encouragingly, they do not see them as a quick-fix and have thought quite a bit about what happens when the deliberation is done:

Citizens’ Assemblies aren’t perfect though. They need to be well designed and funded to work well. Critically, they need political heft to ensure the policy recommendations made by Citizens aren’t ignored. This is why the Citizens’ Voice policy also creates a Parliamentary Commissioner role, to advocate for the recommendations once the deliberation is done.

The idea of a Parliamentary Commissioner is their most distinctive contribution. The commissioner will not just be involved in arrangement and advocating for citizens’ assemblies, but will also have the task of overseeing consultation work with other online and offline methods. It reminds me of the Office of Mass Engagement that Zohran Mamdani has created in New York.

Opportunity could also go further with its support for citizens’ assemblies. While they promote them as a solution to problems and gridlock, they could also be used to set the agenda, as in the Belgian model. They could also use sortition to run their own party. That said, there remains other questions as to how to govern with assemblies, such as how you make sure they don’t just get attacked by the opposition or ignored by the press. And that’s why we need assembly democracy not just through top-down approaches, but also the bottom-up spread of local assemblies.

What kind of centrist?

I am normally sceptical of centrist parties. This is partly because I’d argue that the problems of the world and its countries require more radical solutions than the current midpoints. Moreover, while consensus is great and often very possible and voters are rightly sick of party tribalism, elections do not reward politicians who promise to please everyone. It is better in life to please 81% of the population than 51%, but the reverse is true in national elections, even when the goal is to gain a foothold in parliament rather than dominate. That’s precisely one reason why we need to move past the view of “democracy = elections”.

Opportunity are centrist in the best sense. Far from being wishy washy, they offer radical improvements. Instead, their centrism is in their dislike of party tribalism. It remains to be seen how well this can work in practice. The party tries to avoid identifying with the left or right, but could they maintain that when their feet are held to the fire? That Christopher Luxon has ruled out a coalition with them in a bid to force them onto one side, is a taste of this. Opportunity will face an even bigger challenge if they hold the balance of power in the next parliament.

No matter how well the Opportunity Party fares, it will bring important lessons that should be listened too far away beyond New Zealand’s shores, and that is why I’m calling it one to watch.